market-sizing-analysis
wshobson/agents
Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies.
What is market-sizing-analysis?
Market sizing analysis provides the foundation for startup strategy and fundraising by calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM). Use this skill when validating market opportunity, estimating addressable revenue, or building investor-ready market analysis for pitches and business plans.
- Calculate TAM (Total Addressable Market) to define the universe of potential customers and long-term vision
- Determine SAM (Serviceable Available Market) accounting for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
- Estimate SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) as realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
- Apply top-down analysis using industry reports and market research for mature markets
- Apply bottom-up analysis from customer segment data and pricing for credibility with investors
- Apply value theory methodology for disruptive innovations and new market categories
How to install market-sizing-analysis
npx skills add https://github.com/wshobson/agents --skill market-sizing-analysisHow to use market-sizing-analysis
- 1.Identify your target market and product/service offering
- 2.Choose the appropriate methodology: top-down (for mature markets with research), bottom-up (for specific segments), or value theory (for new categories)
- 3.Gather supporting data: industry reports for top-down, customer segment data for bottom-up, or value creation estimates for value theory
- 4.Calculate TAM by defining the total addressable opportunity in your market
- 5.Narrow TAM to SAM by accounting for geographic, segment, or capability constraints relevant to your product
- 6.Estimate SOM as a realistic percentage of SAM based on competitive landscape and your resources over 3-5 years
- 7.Document assumptions and sources for each calculation to support investor credibility
Use cases
- Validating market opportunity for a new venture before committing resources
- Building investor-ready market analysis for startup pitch decks and fundraising
- Estimating addressable revenue and financial projections for business planning
- Sizing niche or emerging markets where established research is limited
- Comparing competitive positioning by calculating realistic market share targets
- Startup founders and entrepreneurs
- Business development and strategy teams
- Investors and venture capitalists evaluating opportunities
- Product managers assessing new market segments
- Consultants building market analysis for clients
market-sizing-analysis FAQ
TAM is the total revenue opportunity if you achieved 100% market share. SAM is the portion of TAM you can realistically target with your product and constraints. SOM is the realistic market share you can capture in 3-5 years based on competition and resources.
Use top-down for mature, well-researched markets with available industry reports. Use bottom-up for specific customer segments where you have data—it's most credible to investors. Use value theory when creating new market categories or disruptive innovations.
Bottom-up analysis is most credible because it builds from actual customer data and pricing. Support all calculations with documented assumptions and sources. Be conservative with SOM estimates (typically 2-5% of SAM) and explain your competitive positioning.
For top-down: industry reports and market research. For bottom-up: customer segment size, pricing data, and adoption rates. For value theory: estimates of value creation and willingness to pay for solving the problem.
Update your market sizing annually or when significant market conditions change, new competitors emerge, or your product strategy shifts. Investors expect realistic, current analysis.
Full instructions (SKILL.md)
Source of truth, from wshobson/agents.
name: market-sizing-analysis description: Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan. version: 1.0.0
Market Sizing Analysis
Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.
Overview
Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).
Core Concepts
The Three-Tier Market Framework
TAM (Total Addressable Market)
- Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
- Defines the universe of potential customers
- Used for long-term vision and market validation
- Example: All email marketing software revenue globally
SAM (Serviceable Available Market)
- Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
- Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
- Represents realistic addressable opportunity
- Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
- Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
- Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
- Used for financial projections and fundraising
- Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape
When to Use Each Methodology
Top-Down Analysis
- Use when established market research exists
- Best for mature, well-defined markets
- Validates market existence and growth
- Starts with industry reports and narrows down
Bottom-Up Analysis
- Use when targeting specific customer segments
- Best for new or niche markets
- Most credible for investors
- Builds from customer data and pricing
Value Theory
- Use when creating new market categories
- Best for disruptive innovations
- Estimates based on value creation
- Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution
Detailed patterns and worked examples
Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.
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